Hello friends, coming to you in the second quarter of 2021. We’ve put together a report on the current state of coffee affairs in the areas of the world in which we work. Buying coffee, while never easy or uncomplicated, has become more complex than ever, and we want you to feel included, supported, and looped in as we navigate that process together. With the supply and shipping disruptions we’ve seen over the last year and which we know will echo into the future, every link in every supply chain needs to be managed more carefully than ever. We want to help keep your finger on that pulse and hopefully make your job a little easier. This report contains some details as well as some broad strokes—if anything here piques your interest or leads to more questions, we’re always here to talk, so get in touch.
Logistics & Port Updates
We continue to feel the impacts of the widespread disruptions in trade and cargo shipping brought on by the pandemic and magnified recently by the container ship the Ever Given blocking traffic through the Suez Canal. For Red Fox, the global shortage of shipping containers has made it challenging to find bookings for the fastest, most direct ocean cargo routes that we prioritize. We’ve seen higher shipping costs, more rolled and cancelled bookings across the board on all shipping lines, and big bottlenecks at US ports, particularly on the west coast, that result in delays in getting our coffees unloaded, through customs, and stocked into warehouses. Ports, warehouses, and trucking companies are facing staffing shortages due to Covid-19, causing further logistical challenges and delays.
We push to get our Ethiopia shipments afloat as early as possible every year, and are especially glad to report that, with the majority of our containers already on the water or arriving on the east coast, Suez Canal-specific delays have only affected a couple of our later shipments from Ethiopia, some of which we have chosen to hold in Addis until bookings can be confirmed, rather than have them sit at port in Djibouti. We know that long shipping times and warehouse delays are frustrating for everyone and we will continue to bring you as much information as possible regarding ETAs, arrival times, and coffee availability as these challenging conditions continue.
Supply, Demand, & The C Market
After a near 2 year high of around $1.40/lb towards the end of February, the C market seems to have settled in the mid-$1.20s/lb at the time of writing (approximate 3 month moving average). As Red Fox does not trade or hedge using the C market, there was little direct effect on our US operations. However, as the C market price continued to rise during Mexico sourcing discussions, we kept that $1.40 price in mind while determining what competitive quality premiums look like right now. While global shipping lines work to renew vessel schedules across the world’s ports, warehouse stocks of green coffee across the global north continue to dwindle per various market reports. This has led to grumblings around increased C Market volatility though we’ve yet to see any major movement to date.
About 75%-80% of the harvest is currently processed and collected in the central warehouses for bulking and dry milling. The Pluma/Sierra Sur and Mixteca regions are closer to 90%, while some regions in Northern Oaxaca will continue their final round of picking/processing through the first half of April. Chiapas and Veracruz are almost 100% finished with harvest. Our lab in Oaxaca has seen the heaviest 2 week period in our Mexico sourcing history at the end of March and samples continue to arrive from producers and family clusters from new and established relationships. We’re busy cupping offers as well as early preships, bulking coffees, monitoring the dry mill, and making sure coffees are ready to make their way onto the water. April is the primary month for milling across all three states in Mexico where Red Fox sources. Our first container is milled and expected to go afloat this week and four other containers will be milled this week and next. First arrivals will be primarily community lots from the Pluma/Sierra Sur region of Oaxaca.
There is more competition for container availability this year due to the global container shortage but the big advantage Mexico has for shipping to other North American ports is the frequency of vessels arriving and sailing (most steamship lines call to port of Veracruz every 3 days). We also plan to continue to use the port of Manzanillo on the Pacific Coast for West Coast shipments where transit time is 5 days on the water port to port. We still expect these coffees to arrive in May through June.
Covid-19 case counts continue to be a problem across Mexico and while a vaccination program has recently begun by the government, the rollout is slow and disorganized. More wealthy Mexicans with travel visas are going to the US to get vaccinations. The government recently released data showing more accurate cases and death counts than was previously being released and were 30% higher than previously reported. Another surge in cases is expected after the Semana Santa (Easter) holiday where many people travelled and family gatherings are very common. Most businesses are fully open, and while mask wearing is very widespread in public and on the streets, it’s less common in family social gatherings.
Smaller, more vulnerable communities continue to publicize information and precautionary measures, but many of these precautions unfortunately aren’t up to date and don’t prevent spread effectively. Where the latest science overwhelmingly points to aerosols in gatherings in poorly ventilated areas without masks as the primary method of spread, the smaller towns still focus on hand sanitizer and spraying down the outside of clothes and cars with bleach as the way to prevent more cases entering. We hope to see better information and realtime science reach these communities quicker in the future.
Available Lots: Peñas Negras makes its return to the offerings of community lots out of the Pluma/Sierra Sur region, near Juquila not far from the Pacific coast, just straight up the mountain. This community is one of the first to start and finish harvest in Oaxaca and this year’s lot is very balanced and sweetness driven, showing notes of Honeycrisp apple, chocolate syrup, and fresh butter. This and other Pluma community lots in the first shipment arrive to Continental, NJ the first week of May and 2nd week of May to Annex, CA. We’ll also have coffees available by the end of May in Dupuy, Houston and Seaforth, Vancouver this year.
Harvest has officially concluded for the season, Addis warehouses are full of parchment and peak shipping period is now underway. Vertical Integration, which allows for producers to establish a price agreement with an exporter prior to the harvest season, continues to play an emerging role in the specialty sector with more direct business concluded than year’s prior. The ECX continues to receive and trade less coffee.
The Suez Canal incident and rising fuel costs for trucks making the Addis to Djibouti run have caused massive delays for vessels leaving port.
Covid-19 cases are increasing at extreme levels according to our network on the ground in Addis, though accurate reporting remains difficult to find. Ethiopia received 2+ million doses of AstraZeneca in March per the WHO’s initiative.
Available Lots: We were fortunate enough to move our first dozen containers, split between Agaro & Guji, prior to the Suez debacle. Fresh crop has arrived to Port of NJ as of 3/30. We expect availability in Continental Terminals NJ in the coming week or so of both Guji and Agaro coffees. ETA’s for coffees coming into both The Annex CA and Dupuy Houston range from to mid-to-late April.
Kenya is now also in peak shipping season as the main crop has now concluded. 320,000+ bags have been purchased through the auction system and direct purchases since January 1. The fly crop (Kenya’s second, smaller crop) begins later this month and will conclude late May/early June.
Shipments are delayed per the Suez debacle with lines still unable to communicate new schedules. Some fear a backlog into or even through May. Food grade containers are also at a premium.
Nairobi is currently in lockdown as cases are now on the rise. Our trade partners are only in their offices on a rotating, need-to-be basis. The first round of 1,000,000+ AstraZeneca vaccines arrived in Kenya early March. The government expects 3,500,000+ vaccines to be distributed across the 2021 calendar year.
Available Lots: Our first shipment arrived to Port of NJ late February and has now been sold out. Our 2nd shipment destined to CA maintains a mid-April ETD from Mombassa.
We are hearing reports of another month of harvest in Huehuetenango. Early offers have been outstanding and we’ll see more volume this year from producers from the Santa Barbara municipality. Look for Guatemalan coffees clearing on both coasts in mid to late May.
While travel has opened up between departments, public transportation remains extremely limited. This has exacerbated the shortage of migrant pickers and harvesting continues to be a struggle in most regions.
In vaccine news, Guatemala became the third country in Latin America to start vaccinating its population through the COVAX initiative, which uses the AstraZeneca vaccine. Guatemala expects to receive a total 6.6 million doses this year to reach its goal of immunizing 20% of the population.
Available Lots: We’re currently finalizing selections for an initial container to go afloat later this month/early May.
Even though in January 2021 the national economy showed a drop of 0.98%, Peru’s agricultural sector remained afloat and growing. For its part, the Junta Nacional de Café (National Coffee Board) hopes that this year will be strong for coffee production. They expect production to rise 18% compared to last season, and the Cajamarca, Cusco, Amazonas, and Pasco regions will benefit from it.
In mid-January, the Peruvian government declared the arrival of the second wave of Covid-19. The government established different risk levels for the country’s regions and implemented restrictions for each level. One measure ensured that people taking domestic flights from extreme risk regions must present a negative Covid test from within 72 hours before the flight, as well as foreigners entering the country.
Added to the general political instability of 2020 was a national scandal called “vacunagate”, where it was discovered that influential figures including the former president and the health minister had secretly received free vaccines from Sinopharm months before negotiations were finalized and doses were available to the population. The news aggravated the feeling of disappointment with political leaders. Currently, a limited number of vaccines are available and the vaccination process has begun. The Peruvian government presented a National Vaccination Plan that has three phases that extend until the second half of the year. The country is also preparing to face presidential elections during April.
Available Lots: A broad range of all regions and qualities available on all three coasts (Continental NJ, Annex CA, DuPuy Houston). A rep from our team would be happy to walk you through our offerings from Peru and make recommendations.
Heavy rains have stunted both flowering for Colombia’s second semester harvest and maturation for the imminent mitaca fly crop across Southern Colombia. Ports from Cartagena to Buenaventura are dealing with congestion due to limited availability with primary shipping lines. Port Strikes in Brazil and Covid-19 are the main culprits. Container availability is not currently an issue.
Geovanny Liscano reports that Asorcafe is business as usual with producers focused on maintenance in the current between-crops season. First picking at altitude in Inzá should begin by the second half of June.
Covid-19 cases are back on the rise. The government has put in place new travel restrictions for those traveling internally within Colombia. The first vaccines arrived in Colombia mid-February with the government maintaining their plan for 20,000,000 doses to be distributed in the 2021 calendar year.
Available Lots: Red Fox’s North American stock is dwindling as we prepare for inbound Mexican coffee late spring. Expect fresh crop coffee from the mitaca to begin shipping late summer/early fall.
Cherry picking in Rwanda is underway, with peak harvest towards the end of March. Reports of weather and rainfall have been promising, and we are expecting good quality and volume this season. We should see offer samples in our lab in late May/early June.
Rwanda has imposed some of Africa’s toughest anti-coronavirus measures since the pandemic began, including one of the first full lockdowns on the continent in March 2020. More recently, Kigali went back into lockdown for 2 weeks in January 2021, after an increase in the number of Covid cases. Case numbers have since fallen and restrictions have been eased in the capital, though concern about new variants remains high.
Rwanda received its first Covid-19 vaccines in February of this year and has been rolling out a wider vaccination campaign in March, with doses of the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines supplied through the WHO’s COVAX initiative. The government’s goal is to vaccinate 30% of its population of 12 million people this year and 60% by the end of 2022.
Available Lots: Lot selection late May/early June with a container to both East and West Coasts likely to go afloat before the end of June.
Ecuador’s rainfall eclipsed the summer season and there continues to be excess rainfall. It seems that summer weather is finally approaching, which could bring the harvest a bit early. The October-November flowering was abundant, but there was minimal fruit. Producers have let us know that they are optimistic about what is to come this harvest season.
Ecuador received its first Covid-19 vaccines in January 2021, but has been rolling them out slower than anticipated. The country has contracts with Covax, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca. There have been a high number of cases and deaths in the country with a majority near the large coastal city of Guayaquil. The country’s goal is to have phase 1, vaccinating 2 million people completed by the end of April 2021 and begin phase 2. For reference, there are over 17.3 million people total in the country.
Available Lots: With only a few lingering lots left uncommitted, get in touch with your rep if you have interest in sampling any lots still on the offerlist. Sidra, Typica and Bourbon Tekisic variety separations still available.