Welcome to the final quarter of 2025. As the industry continues to absorb shocks from tariffs & a high & volatile C market, our first southern hemisphere coffees are beginning to land while the rest make their way to the States. The closest we’ve come to a new normal seems to be constant vigilance & flexibility, so that’s our play—but there’s much to be excited about, including our entry into a new origin. Read on for the scoop on logistics, the C market, & every origin in which we work. Click here to listen.
Logistics, Port, & Warehouse Updates
A rush by importers to move goods to US ports before the full impact of tariffs went into effect has led to a slower shipping season, with supply outpacing demand. Ocean carriers facing overcapacity are increasing blank sailings & suspending some service routes. Routes from China to the US West Coast are particularly affected. Some carriers have begun to reduce freight rates to capture demand.
Early August saw a slew of tariff announcements from President Trump. The modified reciprocal tariff rates that were announced in July went into effect on August 7, including a 10% baseline tariff for any countries not given specific tariff rates. India now faces an additional 25% tariff on all goods & Brazil now faces a 50% tariff on exports to the US.
On September 5th a new Executive Order was announced, modifying the IEEPA Reciprocal Tariffs that went into effect in April 2025 & introducing a new framework for zero reciprocal tariff rates for certain products for countries with “negotiated agreements of the United States.” The lists included both “natural resources which cannot be grown, mined, or naturally produced in the United States” & “certain agricultural products,” which might have the potential to exempt coffee from the scope of IEEPA tariffs. Since the early September announcement however, there have been no further details on the scope, eligibility, or timeline for this framework to apply to imports. There have been reports that legislators may introduce a bipartisan bill to exempt coffee from US tariffs. Reps. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) & Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) announced they plan to introduce the legislation, but neither have announced a timeline for the bill.
Also in early September, after a federal appeals court found the IEEPA tariffs illegal & President Trump petitioned the Supreme Court for an expedited ruling, the Court agreed to hear oral arguments in the case that challenges the legality of the IEEPA tariffs. Oral arguments are scheduled for the first week of November. There is no current timeline for when the Court might issue an opinion.
Fees on Chinese-built & -owned vessels proposed by the US Trade Representative (USTR) are still expected to go into effect on October 14, 2025. At this time, it appears that most ocean carriers have planned measures to mitigate the impact of these fees, including rerouting vessels away from US ports such that fees will not be passed on to customers, but the full extent of the impacts will be seen once the service fees go into effect.
With import volume slowing, US Ports have fairly normal levels of congestion—West Coast ports are currently seeing 1-3 days of dwell. However, there continue to be rail delays in the US & Canada. Canada in particular is seeing an increase in rail volume as roasters in Canada try to avoid paying US tariffs by bringing coffee to Canadian ports.
Supply, Demand, & The C Market
Note from Red Fox Co-Founder & CEO Aleco Chigounis:
“While we try to avoid making C market predictions at Red Fox, we do believe that the writing is on the wall, at least for the next couple of quarters: while Brazil has seen encouraging weather patterns these past couple of weeks, particularly strong rains, in-country stocks continue to dwindle to historic lows. Simultaneously, certified stock withdrawals across Europe & the US have accelerated. Those certified stocks can’t start replenishing until Brazilian stocks also replenish. Best case scenario for this is late spring 2026. We do not expect to see any major downward trend in the market until then—even with the US-Brazil tariffs potentially being called off in the weeks ahead as speculated at UN meetings last week.”
Between weather reports in Brazil, tariffs, & EUDR, we are coming off what feels like maybe the most volatile few days in market history. We’re not far from where we were at the very start of Q3 (mid-high $3 range), but what a roller coaster it’s been to get here. The market fell off in early Q3 to right around $2.70/lb before a historic rally pushed coffee futures back up above $4 touching just over $4.20/lb. That historic rise was due mainly to poor Brazil crop forecasts compounded by the 50% tariffs on that origin, stoking fears of supply shortages. Then, with recent news of a potential tariff exclusion on coffee, the market dropped nearly $.30/lb in one day, dipping below $3.50 before creeping back to around $3.70/lb at the time of writing. The negative switch widened over the last few weeks from around $.06/lb to over $.20/lb indicating a huge spike in spot market demand.
We at Red Fox are on our heels trying to keep up, so we can only imagine how roasters are feeling. It’s hard not to make reactionary decisions during these times, but it’s important to be more calculated than ever & plan strategically. We are constantly looking at our commitments (both sales & purchases) to understand how exposed we are & how much risk we are taking on, trying to offer as much stability & transparency in pricing as possible, while continuing to stay finely tuned in the labs & strict in the mills. It’s not the easiest way to transact, but we are navigating these moments with fluid communication, finding opportunities to present the best offers with aggressive pricing when we can. We will not sacrifice our identity of sourcing top-tier coffees by beginning to offer sub-tier qualities in order to hit a price point. We understand that forecasting is hard right now—we are experiencing it right there with you. But, we’re confident that we will deliver the best value & top quality lots you’ve grown to expect from us no matter what. We’re watching with a keen eye to see if EUDR delay occurs & if it offers any downward relief on the market.
Peru
The 2025 Peru season can be summed up around 2 major themes: liquidity & inclement weather.
The collective message we’ve received during our visits with the groups has been universal: climate change is making it impossible for producers to plan. Some years bring intense drought, stunting flowering &/or cherry maturation. 2025 has brought intense rains persisting well into the harvest season. September should be a month of straight sun, but this year September has been laden with relentless rain & cloud cover, making good drying tremendously difficult.
Liquidity is the other significant issue. The dollar, whether it’s Red Fox’s or the producer group’s, goes about a third as far as it did just a couple of years ago when it comes to parchment buying. Credit lines are maxed & volumes are limited. Red Fox continues to put as much cash as we can afford to pre-finance into groups in Cusco, Cajamarca, & Puno with the hopes of securing necessary volumes of clean, sweet, dynamic coffee.
That said, quality is king. Amidst the problematic weather the sweetest, most complex coffee we’ve seen in several years continues to flow into our lab in Lima. The QC team is working at a frenetic pace to ensure that our quality standards are met with every shipment. The combination of high C market volatility & unprecedented rains has led to regular encounters with phenol & mold in coffee coming in from the interior. Coffee from a new group in Amazonas & a rekindled relationship in Western Cajamarca have caught our attention in particular.
In terms of logistics, both the ports of Callao & Paita have experienced cancellations & container delays. Much of this is a result of weather conditions (heavy waves) in late August/early September on the Peruvian coast, leading to several temporary port closures. Meanwhile, climate issues in Valparaíso, Chile, are generating congestion & impacting the larger route including some Peruvian ports. These events have led to shipping delays & cancellations, as well as economic impacts on exporters, as in many cases cargo was already moved into temporary terminals awaiting confirmation of port entry. This resulted in storage & demurrage charges not covered by the shipping companies.
Available Lots
Our first arrivals have hit the Port of New Jersey & sold out quickly. We have reinforcements from Cajamarca, Amazonas & Junin in tow behind them. The Southern Peruvian coffees will begin to ship later in October & through year’s end. Please reach out to your Red Fox rep to secure your needs for the months ahead while supplies last. We do not expect to carry extensive SPOT positions into spring as we have in certain years prior.
Burundi
Our inaugural season sourcing coffee in Burundi is off to a hot start with our new but well-established partnerships, which we plugged into with the help of Burundi sourcing veteran Jake Smith.
Burundi’s harvest came to a close in late July with an above-average volume produced throughout the country, including our washing station suppliers. This larger harvest was greatly welcomed after a tumultuous 2024 season where the C market rise combined with stiff bureaucracy at the coffee governing level to make exports difficult. This shifted midway through this year’s harvest when the ODECA coffee governing board & leadership went through a complete reset, resulting in quick approvals for our shipments, which we expect to arrive in November/December.
Available Lots
We’re bringing in stellar washed & natural processed selections from top-tier producer Burundi Seeds Speciality. The washed lots are well-structured, clean, double-fermented lots layered with juiciness like bing cherry & red plum as well as sweet delicate florals & passionfruit notes.
Their impressively balanced naturals are very clean with great structure & acidity. They are loaded with sweet black & blue fruits like fresh fig, blackberry as well as fresh strawberry, grape candy & unique vanilla creaminess.
We will have smaller volumes of classic Kayanza washed & naturals lots with immense clarity & complexity from all-time great Ephrem Sebatigita. We’ll also have a unique set of lots from Nkanda located in the undervalued Ngozi province. Their coffees yield great depth, with big character including a cola-like sweetness, grapefruit intensity, along with lemon candy, peach tea & redcurrant notes.
The majority of these lots are committed as fast as we can purchase them, so if you’re interested let us know.
Colombia
The weather has improved in the coffee-growing areas in which we work, & farms are already preparing for the upcoming flowering period. The harvest is over in Nariño, & Inzà is preparing for its second semester.
Fuel prices continue to gradually increase, making basic household items increasingly more expensive.
In the Cauca region, which includes Inzà, attacks against the population have worsened. Fighting between the Colombian armed forces & guerrillas continues in the upper areas of the Cauca.
Due to unsafe conditions in Inzà, we limited this year’s acquisitions to Tablon de Gomez in Nariño—a highly curated selection of coffees expected to land soon. We are also excited to offer a Tablon Decaf option, which uses ethyl acetate decaffeination to produce a uniquely well-suited flavor profile for this region.
Available Lots
Our limited slate of Nariño lots is on the water & expected to land in early October, so get in touch to make sure you get your share.
Rwanda
Harvest in Rwanda has wrapped for now, even in the high elevations of Nyamasheke, & shipping season is in full swing. In Nyamasheke, volumes were higher than last season despite late season rains, & quality from Kanzu has been excellent. Our first Kanzu container is on the water with a second to follow. We expect to have fresh coffee available to deliver in November/December. We’re loving the Kanzu profiles this year—they’re laden with ripe fruits like blackcurrant, dark plum, & cherry, showing complex, honeyed sweetness, bright lime zest & rhubarb acidity.
Available Lots
We have washed volumes available of these fresh coffees—please reach out to your sales reps with interest!
Bolivia
The harvest is coming to a conclusion across Los Yungas. While heavy rains persisted into the drying season, quality has been universally consistent across our cupping tables. We’ve been present & active in all milling sessions as is our standard protocol here. We have coffee arriving soon with more on the way. Value is high in the current C market cycle, which continues to hover above $3.50/lb.
General elections for President & Vice President of Bolivia were held in August & a new President will be confirmed in the run-off election held later this month. Jose Arce, the incumbent & leader of the MAS (Movimiento al Socialismo) did not run, meaning the party in power for the past 2 decades will no longer be leading the country. A new regime will take control in November.
Available Lots
Our first container of the season (now fully committed) is set to arrive to Port of NJ on 10/3. Our Lima QC team is in La Paz now milling/approving the second container which will be afloat later this month. We expect to ship at least another 2 containers prior to Christmas as well. Please reach out to your Red Fox rep with any questions & booking requests.
Tanzania
Tanzania is currently in primary harvest, with 70% of coffee being picked in the south & peak harvest in the north slated to hit in the coming weeks. Cold weather in the south delayed picking, but things have warmed up, leading to increased ripening & harvest. This created a tighter harvest window between regions than normal, which means a wider range of coffees can be shipped at the same time.
Tanzania’s auction system is now fully online which should make trading easier for cooperatives, estates, & exporters. We’ve been talking with our partners in-country, & we’re looking forward to seeing offers from Tarime, Mondul, & Burka as well as new producers to the Red Fox catalogue.
Available Lots
Offer samples will be in our lab shortly, so expect traders to reach out as we head into the holidays with updates.
Kenya
Kenya is currently in the second half of the fly crop, with FAQ & Grinder quality coffees trading for very high prices given current demand & a high market. As this period draws to a close our partners on the ground have reported good weather forecasts & sunny days as we head toward the main harvest beginning sometime in early November.
There have been no changes in federal regulations this year, so we’ll continue to purchase coffees both through auction & directly from some farmers’ cooperative societies in our bid to support our ongoing supplier relationships while finding new gems through the government-run platform.
Available Lots
With all current-crop coffees sold out, we’re looking forward to the 25/26 harvest this winter. Stay tuned.
Mexico
After a successful 2025 campaign out of Mexico, we look forward to the next harvest & anticipate another active & competitive year. Flowering reports from partners in Veracruz suggest there may be slightly less coffee in the coming harvest than 2025. Oaxaca looks to be the inverse, with farmers in both Mixteca & Sierra Sur regions reporting strong, consistent rains (continuing now & typically stopping around mid-November), good flowering, & an expectation for a significantly larger harvest in 2026 over 2025. All regions will start harvest at lower altitudes around late November/early December, with higher altitude/quality coffees beginning in late December/early January. Mexico remains the only country that, as of now, has avoided any US import tariffs on coffee.
Available Lots
There is only one remaining lot available from our Mexico offerings: 32 bags of Patlanalan (from Puebla, just over the Veracruz border) that arrived in August to Houston. This washed lot has a notably complete flavor profile: balanced & versatile, deeply sweet & layered with juicy, lime-like acidity, plum & raisin notes, brown sugar & slightly floral top notes. Definitely snag some or request samples before it’s gone.
Ethiopia
The African continent’s largest hydroelectric dam opened this past month in Western Ethiopia along the banks of the Blue Nile. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is hoped to double Ethiopia’s current electric power capacity, giving electricity to tens of millions of homes across rural areas of the country. The goal is for 90% of Ethiopians to have power in their homes by 2030.
Coffee supply from the current season is dwindling as buyers have filled past needs from Brazil & beyond with natural & lower-grade coffees from Ethiopia. Stocks are extremely limited, generating interest in next season’s crop. We begin our own Ethiopia ‘25/’26 planning later this month & will have a comprehensive update in our Q1 2026 report. At the time of writing, the weather outlook is strong as are projections for quality & volume.
Available Lots
Our own Ethiopian supply is also dwindling. We now have less than 400 bags of washed & natural Yirgacheffe, Guji, & Agaro available across warehouses. We will begin shipping new crop coffee in Q1 2026 per usual.
Interested in sourcing coffee with us? Reach out at info@redfoxcoffeemerchants.com. To learn more about our work, check out our journal and follow us on Instagram @redfoxcoffeemerchants.