Hello friends, coming to you as we enter the third quarter of 2021. We’ve put together a report on the current state of coffee affairs in the areas of the world in which we work. With the supply and shipping disruptions we’ve seen over the last year and which we know will echo into the future, we want to help keep your finger on the pulse of global coffee traffic and hopefully make your job a little easier. This report contains some details as well as some broad strokes—if anything here piques your interest or leads to more questions, we’re always here to talk, so get in touch.
This quarter, we’re seeing many disruptions and complexities borne out of civil unrest, with the two most notable for our upcoming harvest and shipping season being Peru and Colombia. The other component that’s affecting global shipping operations on an extremely broad scale is the confluence of the global container shortage and widespread port and trucking slowdowns due to Covid-19. Much more on all of that below.
Logistics, Port, & Warehouse Updates
We continue to see widespread disruptions in our supply chains as we enter the second half of 2021. Globally, ocean freight rates have skyrocketed. Routes between East Asia and the US West Coast have been the most impacted. Efforts to combat a Covid outbreak in Shenzhen, China in June caused the port of Yantian to vastly reduce its operating capacity for nearly a month, resulting in a huge backlog of shipments waiting to berth, soaring freight rates, and a further reduction in the supply of available containers for all shipping routes. There is ongoing uncertainty in bookings and volatility in transit times across the industry, and little indication that this will ease before 2022.
Congestion at US ports has seen some mixed improvement, mostly on the East Coast where cargo is moving a little more fluidly through the NY/NJ ports. West Coast ports, which have seen a huge surge in imports this year, are still over capacity, with ongoing labor and equipment shortages contributing to congestion. The port of Oakland continues to see major delays, with boats sitting on the water waiting for a berth for up to 2-3 weeks after arrival.
There is also a general state of congestion across the domestic trucking industry. LTL freight carriers (shipping services for relatively small loads) are dealing with massive shipping volumes alongside continuing shortages of drivers and equipment, and their networks are strained. Transit times and costs are increasing across the board. Carriers are capping the number of warehouse pickups and cutting locations out of their service maps to cope. Warehouses are struggling with inconsistent pickups, last minute cancellations, and a general backlog of shipments. We recommend that roasters plan ahead for longer transit times and higher freight costs, and encourage everyone to get their orders in the pipeline with time to spare.
On the warehouse front, we do have some positive news to share: Continental Terminals, Annex (formerly The Annex) has completed their move to a new facility in Alameda, CA. With the move complete, they are now returning to their 24 hour notice to process and ship orders, meaning pickups from the warehouse can happen a full day earlier than under their previous 48-hour turnaround.
Supply, Demand, & The C Market
Supply and demand have hit their most volatile moment in close to a decade, with dwindling stocks in the Global North, container shortages, reduced route availability by container carriers themselves, and a 2+ month long trade disruption in Colombia at the core of the issue. The C market has risen sharply in the past 60 days, coming in just above $1.50/lb for the past couple weeks. While we don’t expect another rise in the immediate future, many in the trade suspect another spike later in the year around Q4. The situation is developing and no one here has a crystal ball, so we will take this as it comes (or doesn’t) down the line.
The immediate impact of the four aforementioned market dynamics has significantly affected parchment buying across South America, Colombia & Peru most acutely. The FNC, Nespresso, and other large buyers have entered producing regions with extremely high prices for ‘clean’ (sound, nondescript) coffee leading to the most competitive buying market we’ve entered ourselves in our 7+ years in business. As the first semester harvest now enters its peak season we expect to be paying upwards of 50c/lb FOB for our offerings from Inzá & Nariño. Port closures in Buenaventura/Cartagena have trickled down to Peru in that the Colombian supply shortage has created chaotic buying across the country with prices for ‘rubbish’ (wet, unselected) parchment almost doubling from last year. At least one of the major Peruvian exporters has received US $2.6M in loans from the government helping them to incapacitate competition in certain areas of Cajamarca, San Martin, Cusco, and select other departments. Red Fox expects to pay 20-30c/lb FOB more for certain relationships and maintain a level of price stability with others. More to come on the Peruvian state of the trade below as well as in our early August supplement.
On the political front, the country had a disputed presidential election, where two candidates with very different political positions clashed in June. Socialist candidate Pedro Castillo won the presidential election after clinging on to a narrow lead. On the other side, his rival Keiko Fujimori, who refused to concede, has challenged the results, claiming electoral fraud. The political situation has revealed deep gaps between voters, along economic and racial lines, as well as ideological ones. Because of the political instability and speculation regarding the new leftist government, the price of the dollar rose against the national currency during June. This only aggravated extant concerns about the country’s financial stability.
On the coffee front, harvest has already started. The price of coffee is up an estimated 85% over last year, regardless of quality and physical standards. According to comments from cooperative managers we work with, there’s an overall concern regarding what this means for coffee quality this year. The price rise stems from a combination of factors including the increase of the dollar against the national currency, the uncertainty generated by the lack of mobility of Colombian exports, the increase of the commodity price, and the instability of the political future of the country.
Hugo Cahuapaza of Coopbam in Amazonas, Northern Peru, reports that the harvest in the lowest altitudes is already at 100%, while the middle sector has reached almost 80% and the highest zones are just getting started. The rainy season has been unusually prolonged, but producers are taking steps to achieve preset standards in coffee drying. Hugo also told us that the political and financial instability aren’t currently affecting the producers, who continue to carry out their daily activities, since they’re not used to depending on state support anyway.
Cajamarca-based Santuario manager Ismael Alarcon expects a higher production volume this season, approximately a 20% increase over last year. As in all of Peru, Cajamarca has also seen coffee prices rise, which, combined with the greater competition in the market, has led to an increase in labor costs.
Albino Nuñez of Pangoa in Selva Central reports that business continues as usual and that harvest is at its peak right now. He and other members view the season with optimism since they’ve noticed an improvement in quality and expect an increase in the volume produced this year.
Stay tuned for a Peru supplement in the coming months going into more detail as we get into the field and start the actual purchasing process—the situation here is developing and we’ll keep you on top of it.
While Peru spot coffee continues to make its way into roasters and mugs, we do still have a number of solid lots from community to producer ID available on both coasts and in DuPuy Houston. We’re cupping all lots regularly and they’re still at the top of their game.
The political chaos surrounding tax reform that has mired the country for the past two months appears to be nearing its end, at least for the moment. Ports have reopened as of late June, though diminished availability/routes with container carriers and the ensuing backlog of coffee in dry mills across Colombia creates an outlook of slow shipments and deliveries into fall.
COVID-19 appears to be hitting it’s peak in Colombia at the moment recently passing 100,000 deaths due to the virus. A dearth of vaccine availability keeps the outlook bleak for the immediate future.
From our dry mill/export partners in Popayan:
“Things are getting back to a certain normality and coffee flow/purchases are decent. There is congestion at the ports which will take weeks to sort and freight rates are increasing. May shipments were 0.5m bags and June has shipped 0.2million bags so far (June 14th). Differentials [countries’ standard differentiated price for clean coffee in relation to the C market] are continuing to increase due to rains having an impact on the next mid crop. We might need to reduce our production expectations to around 12m bags.
Despite the strikes having ended and the road corridors to ports being reactivated, the situation has not improved much. Ports are facing high congestion due to the increased volume now coming through from different areas.
- Buenaventura has been operating since mid-June, but the main problem is low availability of vessels. During May, only two vessels were available in Buenaventura and as the operation just started to normalize, the combination of limited vessels, limited trucking routes, and the backlog of coffee in the dry mills means continued delays.
- Cartagena’s been highly congested since the end of May because of space limitations, low storage capacity, and lack of containers. Until mid-June, the trucks were taking eight days to enter port (literally waiting in a nearby parking slot, waiting to enter the port’s installation), which caused the loss of the vessels. It also led to carriers refusing to travel to this port unless a daily stand-by rate is set to include waiting times.
- Santa Marta is facing the same situation as Cartagena with the difference that until this week (June 21st), entry to the port is taking 12 days.
- For all ports, the main concern now is truck availability due to the increase of inland freights and because the preference goes to transportation of imported goods (often paying four times more than usual freight), followed by lack of space in the vessels.
- As a final comment for the logistic side, we are 85% confident that the situation will smooth out for August.”
As far as the first semester harvest itself is concerned we are hearing consistent reports of heavy competition for parchment across the country. Whereas Red Fox leveled up farmgate pricing to producers from $1.35mill pesos/carga in 2020, the FNC (National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia) is opening at $1.6mill pesos/carga for clean coffee now. Expect a significant increase in your Colombian coffee costs this year regardless of your source.
Inzá, Cauca has been pummeled by late season rains as peak harvest begins at altitude. Volume expectations for the fly crop are plummeting on a weekly basis.
From Geovanny Liscano, Producer and Asorcafe President:
“I can tell you that internal prices are very high at the moment. Nespresso is at 1.6mill pesos per carga.”
From Danilson Oidor, Producer and Asorcafe Member:
“It’s a strange year, we’re harvesting very little. There are a lot of rains which has led to a lack of cherry maturation.”
From Raquel Lasso, Producer and President FUDAM
“Narino is now approaching its peak season harvest at altitude. The parchment market across the department is also at a competitive high. Climate change seems to be rearing its head in ways that are clear to anyone looking. While the flowering was solid, heavy rains during the fruits’ maturation cycle caused a lot of fruit to drop from the trees prematurely. There will be immediate repercussions in the season’s yield due to this.”
From Gildardo Chincunque, Producer and Parchment Collector, Tablon de Gomez:
“The harvest has begun but the baseline price in the region is 13,000/kilo or 1.650.000 pesos/carga [for clean coffee*].”
*This is compared to the 1.3mill pesos/carga we opened at last year for 85+ scoring coffee.
Harvest in Rwanda is coming to an end, with high-elevation Kanzu wrapping up about a month later than washing stations at lower elevations. Rainfall and conditions were favorable for quality and volume this year, with total production in the coffee sector expected to be up 10-15% over the prior season. Competition for coffee cherry was intense, and internal prices paid to farmers increased to almost double what they were last year.
Logistics are expected to be challenging this season. Empty containers for export are scarce and difficult to secure. Landlocked Rwanda moves all cargo by truck to the ports in Mombasa, Kenya or Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania. Travel restrictions and Covid testing requirements for truck drivers crossing the borders are slowing down the movement of coffee to port, such that what might be a five day drive under normal circumstances can now take up to three weeks.
With outbreaks surging in neighboring Uganda and DR Congo, new cases of Covid-19 in Rwanda have risen exponentially in the past weeks. The country is now recording its highest number of daily cases since the beginning of the pandemic. Access to vaccines remains low, with just under 2% of the population fully vaccinated, and there are concerns that the highly contagious delta variant will soon be widespread in the region. The Rwandan government announced new restrictions for the capital Kigali and eight other districts that go into effect July 1st, including a 6pm curfew, and the closure of schools and universities, non-essential offices, and restaurants. Travel between districts is restricted to essential services.
We are currently evaluating offer samples from the first Kanzu outturns and will push to get containers moving as early as possible, in light of the expected shipping challenges. We aim to have coffee on the water in July/August for Sept/Oct availability.
Civil unrest continues to be the central theme in Ethiopia with the Tigray conflict at its core. Restrictions against the press have made honest, relevant news hard to come by. In the midst of all of this Ethiopia held its elections for Prime Minister with many challenging the election’s fitness. Final results have yet to be announced.
As shipping season is now on its backend the trade is scrambling and struggling to find empty containers and available vessel departures for remaining shipments. Exporters scramble to allocate their final washed G1 lots which often get sold as G2 in the twilight of the shipping season. We also hear chatter on the export side of major internal market disruption due to larger exporters hiking prices to meet their contractual obligations. Akrabis (coffee traders/wet mill owners/parchment collectors) have ignored certain agreements to sell at higher market levels.
Both Kedir Jebril and the Kata Muduga Union are completely finished for the season with stock shipments and look ahead to the coming crop.
We’re well stocked with fresh washed lots from Agaro and Guji on all three coasts as well as including DuPuy Houston. Naturals from Nansebo and Bensa arrive to both California and New Jersey later this month.
With the harvest completed across Mexico, almost all volume has been sold or contracted with milling being finalized on remaining parchment and final shipments moving to port by early July. Limited direct shipping routes, container/ship space availability, and frequent rollovers from most or all shipping lines have continued to slow the export and import processes, but we’ve been working with shippers to get coffees out with more fluidity and success. Rainy season has settled in across the southern growing region. After a contentious and highly anticipated election season, the country continues to struggle with containing Covid and getting the population vaccinated in a timely manner. However, most businesses are operating at full capacity and the economically important tourism sector has picked up in recent months.
Mexico arrivals continue to fly off the shelves almost as fast as we can bring them in, but we do have an array of lots in Continental NJ, and DuPuy Houston. Newly arrived at Continental, we have Familia Garcia Lopez, from Casimiro and family in the Loxicha area of the Pluma region in Southern Oaxaca, with 29 bags available. We also have a new offering this year which just arrived with 18 bags available. Coming to us from a producer group in a remote part of the Mixteca region, Garra de Jaguar is dynamic and sweet with tons of dried fruit notes.
Due to excessive rainfall at the beginning of the year, producers we work with are expecting a decrease in production this year in Ecuador, and particularly the Pichincha region. Arnaud Causse of Las Tolas and Terrazas del Pisque in Pichincha tells us he’s expecting a 20% decrease in production this year and a delayed peak in production as well. He also said he’ll be focusing less on natural processed coffees this year due to the lack of sun and excess humidity. In other areas of the country, such as Napo, where high amounts of rainfall are normal, there are high expectations for a great year for production and processing.
According to media sources, about 11% of the population are vaccinated. The country still requires masking and recommends residents to stay home as much as possible. There are mobility restrictions across the country which producers expect to impact this year’s harvest.
From our friend Kennedy Keya at C. Dorman:
“Kenya main crop sales in the auction market ended in April. About 420,000 bags (60kg) were traded. Farmers were a happy lot with many factories paying on average equivalent of $0.70 per kg of cherry. We have been on recess for two months. Auctions resume tomorrow with only 8,000 bags on offer. It has been chilly resulting in slow parchment drying. We estimate about 160,000 bags from the fly crop this year. Auctions will be held every two weeks until volumes stabilize. The next main crop to be harvested from October is expanding well. If weather patterns don’t cause any damage we expect decent volume of the main crop, about 25,000 metric tons.
The Covid situation is stable with new infection rates ranging from 5% to 10% daily. But again, numbers of those tested are too low. Life is picking up though many sectors of the economy are struggling, for example the tourism and hotel industries.
The port is operating at a slow pace. A big challenge is getting empty containers. Imports have been low. However, we are able to meet the shipment schedule by placing vessel bookings in advance. Some shipping lines, for example Hapag, are not accepting bookings for nearby shipments. They say their vessels are fully booked.”
We have a small handful of truly superb Kenyas available on both coasts.
Guatemala continues to struggle with over 1500 new Covid-19 cases reported daily. Like many countries, the majority of cases are not reported due to lack of testing, especially in rural areas. Our source in Guatemala City tells us “Covid is pretty much the same here, not getting any better.”
Harvest has wrapped up in Guatemala. Like just about everywhere we are sourcing, there have been shipping delays, mostly due to lack of available containers.
We contracted two containers this year with one going to each coast. The east coast bound container had an ETA into NJ 6/28, and has just a few bags from Santa Barbara, Huehuetenango available plus a larger lot from San Jose Poaquil in Chimaltenango. We expect to see this stripping into Continental around the second week of July.
The west coast Guatemala container has an ETA to CA of 7/6. We are continuing to see delays with containers getting picked up and stripped into The Annex, so best guess is end of July availability for these coffees including a 20 bag single producer lot from Los Arroyos in Huehuetenango.
Both the ongoing Civil War and Covid issues have decimated the coffee industry. Moving coffee to port internally, loading onto passing vessels, and the larger global shipment situation have led to shipment periods of upwards of 60 days. Thankfully, the coffees we purchased this year have already landed and we have an extremely limited quantity available.
|Interested in sourcing coffee with us? Reach out at email@example.com. To learn more about our work, check out our journal and follow us on Instagram @redfoxcoffeemerchants, Twitter @redfoxcoffee, Spotify, and YouTube.|